Sentinel · Structural Layer
Macro PSI
Live federal debt-to-GDP, plus the elite-overproduction and fiscal-distress framework behind it.
Federal Debt — Percent of GDP (FRED)
LIVE
Connecting to FRED proxy…
Elite Overproduction & State Legitimacy
CONTEXT
Political Stress Indicator framework, per Turchin's structural-demographic theory. Elite overproduction and state fiscal capacity — the two structural pillars that compound toward rupture.
Intra-elite polarization and state legitimacy run as synthesis reads here, not single live feeds — there's no one number for either. Turchin's own Crisis DB updates on his publication schedule, not in real time.